Abstract
Perceived safe-haven assets are not guaranteed to produce positive returns in all market downturns. For example, non-cash safe havens, such as gold and Bitcoin, can be wildly volatile and unpredictable, even during market crises. Cash as a safe haven also carries risk in that it can lose value in the event of currency devaluation or inflation. The volatility of non-cash safe havens and the potential for currencies to lose value in severe market crises presents investors with the difficult task of identifying the ultimate safe-haven asset(s) for their portfolios. In selecting the safe-haven assets that best meet a program’s needs and long-term objectives, it is important to understand the risk exposures that financial safe havens carry and to consider diversifying safe-haven exposure so as not to rely on a single asset to provide protection in a market downturn.
TOPICS: Commodities, other real assets, currency, financial crises and financial market history
Key Findings
▪ Perceived safe-haven assets aren’t guaranteed to produce positive returns in all market downturns. For example, non-cash safe havens, like gold and Bitcoin, can be wildly volatile and unpredictable, even during market crises.
▪ Cash as a safe haven also carries risk in that it can lose value in the event of currency devaluation or inflation.
▪ The volatility of non-cash safe havens and the potential for currencies to lose value in severe market crises presents investors with the difficult task of identifying the ultimate safe-haven asset(s) for their portfolios.
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