The Ultimate Safe Haven

Abstract

Perceived safe-haven assets are not guaranteed to produce positive returns in all market downturns. For example, non-cash safe havens, such as gold and Bitcoin, can be wildly volatile and unpredictable, even during market crises. Cash as a safe haven also carries risk in that it can lose value in the event of currency devaluation or inflation. The volatility of non-cash safe havens and the potential for currencies to lose value in severe market crises presents investors with the difficult task of identifying the ultimate safe-haven asset(s) for their portfolios. In selecting the safe-haven assets that best meet a program’s needs and long-term objectives, it is important to understand the risk exposures that financial safe havens carry and to consider diversifying safe-haven exposure so as not to rely on a single asset to provide protection in a market downturn.

TOPICS: Commodities, other real assets, currency, financial crises and financial market history

Key Findings

• ▪ Perceived safe-haven assets aren’t guaranteed to produce positive returns in all market downturns. For example, non-cash safe havens, like gold and Bitcoin, can be wildly volatile and unpredictable, even during market crises.

• ▪ Cash as a safe haven also carries risk in that it can lose value in the event of currency devaluation or inflation.

• ▪ The volatility of non-cash safe havens and the potential for currencies to lose value in severe market crises presents investors with the difficult task of identifying the ultimate safe-haven asset(s) for their portfolios.