Inflation Hedging in the Long Run: Practical Perspectives from Seven Centuries of Commodity Prices

Abstract

One promise of commodity investments is that they offer a long run hedge against inflation. But do they? The authors undertake a comprehensive investigation of commodities’ inflation-hedging ability across 50 commodities for 80 countries and seven centuries of data. They confirm that commodities have offered protection against inflation throughout history, especially over long, multiyear periods. Nonetheless, hedging capacity has varied remarkably—both over time and across geographical regions. Following many centuries of agricultural commodity primacy, energy commodities have taken the lead only recently. They recommend that investors should continue to include commodities in their portfolios to protect against inflation. However, not all commodity types offer the same protection level, which differs over time and across countries and geographies.

TOPICS: Commodities, global, performance measurement, financial crises and financial market history

Key Findings

• ▪ The authors examine the inflation-hedging ability of commodities using data from seven centuries.

• ▪ Commodities offer protection against inflation, although hedging capacity varies over time and between countries.

• ▪ Following many centuries of the primacy of agricultural commodities, energy commodities have taken the lead recently.