Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

G Girardi, AT Ergün - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013 - Elsevier
We modify Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2011) CoVaR, the VaR of the financial system
conditional on an institution being in financial distress. We change the definition of financial …

Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and expected shortfall

AT Ergün, J Jun - The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2010 - Elsevier
We estimate several GARCH- and Extreme Value Theory (EVT)-based models to forecast
intraday Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for S&P 500 stock index futures …

On the revelation of private information in the US crop insurance program

A Ker, A Tolga Ergun - Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
The crop insurance program is a prominent facet of US farm policy. The participation of private
insurance companies as intermediaries is justified on the basis of efficiency gains. These …

Trading collar, intraday periodicity and stock market volatility

SV Aradhyula*, AT Ergün - Applied Financial Economics, 2004 - Taylor & Francis
Using five-minute data, market volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is examined in
the presence of trading collars. A polynomial specification is used for capturing intraday …

NYSE Rule 80A restrictions on index arbitrage and market linkage

A Tolga Ergün - Applied Financial Economics, 2009 - Taylor & Francis
To the extent that NYSE Rule 80A collar, which restricts index arbitrage form of program
trading on volatile days, aims to delink S&P 500 cash and futures markets and prevent …

A more accurate benchmark for daily electricity demand forecasts

J Jun, A Tolga Ergün - Management Research Review, 2011 - emerald.com
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a simple regression‐based method of
forecasting daily electricity demand, which may serve as a more accurate benchmark for short‐…

[PDF][PDF] Measuring hedge fund liquidity mismatch

GO Aragon, AT Ergun, G Girardi… - The Journal of Alternative …, 2021 - par.nsf.gov
We construct a comprehensive measure of mismatch between the market liquidity of assets
and the funding liquidity of liabilities of hedge funds. The measure captures the complete …

The instability of the Pearson correlation coefficient in the presence of coincidental outliers

Y Kim, TH Kim, T Ergün - Finance Research Letters, 2015 - Elsevier
It is well known that any statistic based on sample averages can be sensitive to outliers. Some
examples are the conventional moments-based statistics such as the sample mean, the …

Conditional skewness, kurtosis, and density specification testing: Moment-based versus nonparametric tests

AT Ergun, J Jun - Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2010 - degruyter.com
Recently, there has been much interest in modeling time-varying higher-order conditional
moments in the density estimation context. These studies employ a moment-based …

Skewness and Kurtosis Persistence: Conventional vs. Robust Measures

AT Ergun - Midwest Finance Association 2012 Annual Meetings …, 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Recently, independent of each other, there has been interest in (i) time-variation in higher-order
moments;(ii) idiosyncratic skewness and predictability of skewness in the asset pricing …